Smyrna, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

423
FXUS64 KOHX 031110
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
610 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

- Summer like weather this week with warm temperatures.

- Weather pattern becomes more unsettled late week into the
  weekend with periods of showers and thunderstorms.

- Those with outdoor plans this weekend in Middle TN will want to
  watch the forecast closely throughout the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Purty quiet out there at forecast time. There`s a few clouds roaming
around and temperatures have been slow to cool with many in the 70s
still after seeing one of our warmer days of the year so far. If you
like the warmth, I`ve got good news for you.

The upper ridge responsible for today`s mid and upper 80s will still
be with us for at least another day and should provide afternoon
temperatures in the low 90s tomorrow. In fact, there`s 90+
percent chance that this little taste of summer will provide highs
north of 90 degrees at BNA for the next 3 days. Why is this? Yes,
the upper ridge will help with this tomorrow. However, latest
guidance shows this upper ridge being squeezed off to the east and
we lose its influence. In its place, there`s a little more going
on. First, there`s a weak tropical wave that is already starting
to take shape over Florida. Right now, NHC only has this wave at a
10% percent chance of becoming a tropical system. However, that
doesn`t change its influence on our weather here in the mid-state.
As it lifts northward tomorrow and Wednesday, the trough over the
center of the country that is providing severe weather in the
Plains this evening will push eastward. There are some indications
we could get sandwiched between the two, providing subsidence
across Middle TN. This would stifle rain chances Wednesday and
Thursday (maybe not completely, but for most) and drive up
afternoon highs. It`s an interesting scenario and one I think the
NBM is pushing as NBM50 shows afternoon highs in the 90s into
Friday. We`ll have to see if that pans out. In either event, I
think there`s at least a 20-30% chance of seeing some storms west
of I-65 Wednesday and Thursday and of course, these will be very
summer-like with any storms providing a wind and heavy rain
threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

As far as more widespread rain chances, extended guidance is
suggesting we lose this subsidence across the area by Friday night,
opening the door for these higher rain chances through the weekend,
possibly starting Friday night and lasting into the day on Saturday.
I took a quick look at forecast soundings on Saturday and while
shear values are enough to provide thunderstorms, helicity values
are relatively low for updraft sustainment. But, lapse rates are
such that wind could be a concern. Additional storm chances may
arrive Sunday afternoon, as well, with similar concerns. So, if you
have outdoor plans this weekend in Middle TN, you will want to watch
the forecast closely this week and plan accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The small amount of patchy fog this morning will lift in the next
hour or so and then we will see VFR conditions through the TAF
period. SCT clouds 040-070 mainly this afternoon. Southerly winds
up to 10 knots for most of the terminals, KCKV could see gusts up
to 19 knots between 16-23z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  70  90  71 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    89  68  90  70 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     83  63  82  63 /   0   0  10  10
Columbia       88  68  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     85  66  85  66 /   0   0  10  10
Jamestown      85  63  85  64 /   0   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   87  68  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   89  68  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        88  68  88  68 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Mueller