Smyrna, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

766
FXUS64 KOHX 231604
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1004 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1001 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

 - No significant changes to the previous forecast.

 - A warming trend is in store this week as high temperatures warm
   to the 50s and 60s.

 - Rain returns to the area Christmas Day with another round of
   rain Friday and into the weekend. Severe weather is not
   expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Christmas Day)
Issued at 1249 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Skies are clear at forecast time and temperatures have fallen into
the upper 20s to low 30s for most. Many will continue this cooling
trend through daybreak with some reaching the low to mid 20s,
however, a quick look at satellite reveals a batch of mid-level
clouds that have crossed the Mississippi River over the last hour,
which could reach out western counties in the next couple of hours.
If they do, the cooling along the TN River will cease. Shy of that,
there isn`t much going on in the short term part of the forecast.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to bit a tick warmer than
yesterday.

Tonight, a low pressure system is expected to begin developing over
the center of the country. As it does, minimal amounts of moisture
streaming from Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley could bring some light
showers into the far northern reaches of the mid-state. There`s at
least a low chance of this occurring for those north of I-40 after
midnight tonight and towards daybreak Christmas Eve morning, but
even if it does, we`re only talking a couple hundredths of an inch.
There`s a high chance the bulk of this moisture will hold off until
Christmas Day. Timing of the rain is still in question as the NBM
seems to have a heavy ECMWF influence, with rain coming in during
the morning hours Christmas Day, however most other models show an
afternoon arrival. We`ll tweak this in the forecast over the next 24
hours, however in either instance, rainfall totals are expected to
be very light, with most who see rain topping out near a tenth of an
inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1249 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A warming trend will continue throughout the week leading to what
looks like an unsettled weather pattern as we move into Friday-
Saturday-Sunday this week. No severe weather is expected as multiple
waves move through the region, but through this 3-day period,
current QPFs are running 1-2 inches. With pretty significant
differences in the evolution of this pattern in the extended,
specifics are vague, but we`ll still carry a medium chance of it
being a wet weekend with temperatures running several degrees above
normal for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue through this taf period. Skies will
be mainly clear today with increasing south winds on the back side
of a high pressure center. Increasing mid and high level moisture
will bring cigs around 8kft tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      53  37  55  40 /   0  10   0  20
Clarksville    52  38  53  41 /   0  30  20  40
Crossville     46  28  51  33 /   0  10   0   0
Columbia       52  34  56  38 /   0  10   0  20
Cookeville     49  32  51  36 /   0  10   0  10
Jamestown      48  30  50  34 /   0  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   51  33  56  37 /   0  10   0  10
Murfreesboro   52  33  55  36 /   0  10   0  10
Waverly        51  38  54  40 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....13